GEM Global Earthquake Model — Seismic Hazard & Risk Assessment Intelligence

KBT-GEM-GLOBALRISK-1.0

Core thesis Robust probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment requires the integration of standardized seismic source models, ground motion prediction equations, exposure databases, and vulnerability functions — and GEM provides the open, globally consistent platform for this integration.

Primary frameworks

• Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) — probability of exceeding ground motion thresholds at any return period
• Seismic Source Zone Models — area sources, fault sources, and smoothed seismicity models
• Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) — empirical scaling of shaking intensity with magnitude and distance
• OpenQuake Engine — open-source PSHA and risk calculation platform
• Exposure & Vulnerability Models — building stock characterization and fragility for risk calculation
• Risk Metrics — annual average losses, probable maximum losses, and exceedance probability curves
• Global Mosaic of PSHA Models — country-level PSHA models assembled into global hazard maps

What this tile gives an agent:

• Apply PSHA principles to calculate ground motion hazard at any location for any return period
• Use OpenQuake to run seismic hazard and risk calculations with GEM input models
• Access global hazard maps for seismic design and disaster risk assessment
• Reason about uncertainty in PSHA from source model, GMPE, and completeness contributions
• Support evidence-based building code and land-use policy decisions with GEM hazard products