Study Guide Type 2 — Operational Decision: Volcanology & Seismology Items 50–100

What it extracts

• Scenario 1 — Petrology to Hazard: Clinopyroxene barometry indicates storage at 8 km depth; amphibole breakdown rims suggest rapid ascent. Apply KBT-PUTIRKA-THERMOBAR and KBT-CASHMAN-HOWVOLCWORK. Is explosive eruption probable? What monitoring signals should you prioritize?
• Scenario 2 — Column Collapse Threshold: Mass flux is estimated at 10⁸ kg/s from a Vulcanian eruption. Apply KBT-SPARKS-VOLCANICPLUMES collapse threshold model. Will the column remain convective or collapse to PDCs? What is the hazard zone implication?
• Scenario 3 — Stratigraphy to Recurrence: Outcrop shows 4 ignimbrites separated by paleosols in 40 ka. Apply KBT-CAS-VOLCANICSUC stratigraphy and KBT-SIMKIN-VOLCANOSWORLD catalog data. What is the eruption recurrence interval and confidence level?
• Scenario 4 — Pinatubo-Style Crisis Escalation: A previously unknown volcano shows: VT earthquake swarms (200/day), 30 ppb SO₂ TROPOMI anomaly, 3 cm/day GPS inflation. Population of 80,000 within 30 km. Apply KBT-NEWHALL-PINATUBO crisis decision framework. What are the immediate next 3 actions?
• Scenario 5 — Dome Collapse PDC Zones: An andesitic dome is extruding at 5 m³/s. Apply KBT-DRUITT-SOUFRIERE dome collapse PDC run-out models and KBT-MCNUTT-VOLCSEISMO hybrid swarm interpretation. Define the 3-zone exclusion boundary and justify it probabilistically.
• Scenario 6 — Geothermal Development Risk: A government proposes drilling into a hydrothermal system 2 km from an active crater. Apply KBT-WOHLETZ-GEOTHERMAL phreatic risk assessment and KBT-DZURISIN-VOLCANODEFORM deformation monitoring requirements. What conditions must be met before drilling commences?
• Scenario 7 — Volcanic Climate Impact: A VEI 6 eruption injects 10 Tg SO₂. Apply KBT-OPPENHEIMER-ERUPTIONS SO₂-to-aerosol-to-cooling chain and KBT-MARTI-VOLCENVIRON food security cascade. Produce a 24-month climate and agricultural impact advisory.
• Scenario 8 — Aftershock Sequence Management: 48 hours after an Mw 6.9, there have been 340 aftershocks. Apply KBT-USGS-COMCAT Omori-Utsu law and KBT-GEM-GLOBALRISK PSHA context. What is the probability of an M≥6.5 aftershock in the next 7 days and what building inspection protocol does this trigger?
• Scenario 9 — Supervolcano Probability Briefing: A politician asks: 'What is the probability Yellowstone erupts in the next 100 years?' Apply KBT-GOTTSMANN-CALDERA, KBT-LAMEVE-DATABASE frequency statistics, and KBT-MARZOCCHI-PROBFORECAST uncertainty framing. Draft a 3-sentence public-facing probability statement.
• Scenario 10 — Multi-Hazard Japan Event: Sakurajima erupts at VEI 3 simultaneously with an Mw 6.2 in Kagoshima Bay. Apply KBT-JMA-JAPAN multi-hazard integration, KBT-INGV-ITALY urban volcanic risk archetypes, and KBT-GVP-HOLOCENE historical context. Who do you call first and what do you say?
• Scenario 11 — Catalog Gap Identification: A PSHA study needs 500-year seismicity rates but ComCat only has complete coverage to 1975. Apply KBT-ISC-BULLETIN historical catalog, KBT-GUTENBERG-SEISMEARTH b-value statistics, and KBT-LAWSON-1906SFEQ historical methodology. How do you extend the catalog and what uncertainty does this add?
• Scenario 12 — Waveform Data Emergency: A network station goes offline during active volcanic unrest. Apply KBT-IRIS-DMC backup data access strategies and KBT-MCNUTT-VOLCSEISMO signal classification requirements. Which backup stations do you activate and what minimum network is needed for reliable LP event detection?

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